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I've been writing code, reading code, and living vicariously through computers for as long as I can remember. I like to build things that work. I also dabble in machining, welding, cooking and skiing.I'm currently an engineer at Amazon Web Services (AWS) in Seattle, where I work on databases, serverless, and serverless databases. Before that, I worked on EC2 and EBS.All opinions are my own. Links (https://brooker.co.za/blog/publications.html) My Publications and Videos (https://fediscience.org/@marcbrooker) @marcbrooker on Mastodon (https://twitter.com/MarcJBrooker) @MarcJBrooker on Twitter You Are Here Where to next? The cost of turning written business logic into code has dropped to zero. Or, at best, near-zero. The cost of integrating services and libraries, the plumbing of the code world, has dropped to zero. Or, at best, near-zero. The cost of building efficient, reliable, secure, end-to-end systems is starting to drop, but slowly. Where does that leave those of us who have built careers in technology? Our road diverges. Not into the undergrowth of a wood, but into a dense fog. The future is harder to see than ever. But lets peer forward and see as best we can. On the first road we can see this as the end to a craft we have loved. The slow end of programming as an economic discipline, as weaving, ploughing, and coopering went before. It is reasonable and rational to feel a sense of loss, and a sense of uncertainty. With the loss of the craft comes the loss of the economic moment where that craft was valued beyond nearly any other. Perhaps any other in history. It is irrational to feel denial. You are here. On the second road we can see this moment as the beginning of something new. With new tools comes greater opportunity than ever. Greater economic opportunity for those who value that. Greater technical opportunity for those who value that. The most powerful set of new tools since the dawn of computing itself. With these tools come risk, and with risk comes opportunity. With these tools come new industries, new fields of research, and new careers. All bring opportunity. The First Road Back at university, I knew this guy. Mostly retired. An absolute wizz at circuit design and analog electronics. Like nobody I\u2019ve encountered since. In the late 1960s, him and some buddies started a hardware company. They\u2019d seen digital electronics coming, the 74 series had just launched. They didn\u2019t like it. No class. No beauty. Unreliable and full of problems. So they started this company betting that serious customers wouldn\u2019t accept the downsides of digital logic, and analog was the way of the future for real automation. Statistically, measured by the ratio of transistors in digital and analog circuits in the year 2026, it\u2019s unlikely anybody has ever been more wrong. Wrong by ten or more orders of magnitude. He made a small fortune along this path. Not a large one, but enough to keep his children comfortable. The first road will surely have similar winners. The stubborn who stick to the old ways, and hustle to squeeze out the remaining economic value. That value will remain, because the world always changes slower than we would like. But those that succeed along this road will increasingly be those that acknowledge what they\u2019re doing, and why they\u2019re doing it. Picking up the parts of an old world, now gone, but intentionally. There will still be joy in programming. Just as there\u2019s joy in joinery, knitting, and hiking. You\u2019re not wrong to love programming. I love it too. You\u2019re not wrong to feel a deep sense of loss. I feel it too. The Second Road What careers lie on the second road? Perhaps surprisingly, this seems harder to predict. My guess is that there are fortunes to be made exploiting the new technology, building faster, and out-competing a valuable incumbent. There are decades of great companies to build following that recipe. There are great careers in technology and science to be made applying this new technology to old problems, bringing new tools into tricky places, and solving the previously unsolvable. There are both fortunes and careers to be made in solving the problems this new technology introduces, allowing everybody else to exploit it to its maximum potential. In other words, my best prediction is that the next two decades look like the last four. Hardly a prediction worthy of an oracle. Today, it seems like the biggest opportunities will be in the third of my opening statements. Building systems remains hard. Can I assume you\u2019re familiar with (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amdahl%27s_law) Amdahl\u2019s Law ? That\u2019s what\u2019s going on: a massive speed up on a portion of the problem, but as that portion speeds up it becomes less and less of a contributor to the overall speedup. Lowering the costs of the rest of the problem is work that remains to be done. It\u2019s going to take a long time, because the real world is fully of sticky problems, surprising feedback loops, human stubbornness, and the occasional adversary. There\u2019s also going to be great value in ideas. Integration and translation are solved problems. Simple analysis, and small scale synthesis are too. But new ideas, real transformative new ideas, remain hard to come by. And, as the lever gets longer, more and more valuable. Software\u2019s first act is over. The second act won\u2019t go like anybody expects, but I can bet that it\u2019ll be more interesting, more economically valuable, and more mentally stimulating than we can imagine right now. I can\u2019t wait to be part of it. \u00ab (/blog) Back to the blog index Similar Posts 21 Jan 2026 \u00bb (/blog/2026/01/21/pass-k.html) Pass@k is Mostly Bunk 12 Jan 2026 \u00bb (/blog/2026/01/12/agent-box.html) Agent Safety is a Box 16 Dec 2025 \u00bb (/blog/2025/12/16/natural-language.html) On the success of 'natural language programming' Marc BrookerThe opinions on this site are my own. They do not necessarily represent those of my employer.marcbrooker@gmail.com (https://brooker.co.za/blog/rss.xml) RSS (https://brooker.co.za/blog/atom.xml) Atom This work is licensed under a (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License . 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Or, at best, near-zero.\n\nThe cost of integrating services and libraries, the plumbing of the code world, has dropped to zero. Or, at best, near-zero.\n\nThe cost of building efficient, reliable, secure, end-to-end systems is starting to drop, but slowly.\n\nWhere does that leave those of us who have built careers in technology? Our road diverges. Not into the undergrowth of a wood, but into a dense fog. The future is harder to see than ever. But lets peer forward and see as best we can.\n\nOn the first road we can see this as the end to a craft we have loved. The slow end of programming as an economic discipline, as weaving, ploughing, and coopering went before. It is reasonable and rational to feel a sense of loss, and a sense of uncertainty. With the loss of the craft comes the loss of the economic moment where that craft was valued beyond nearly any other. Perhaps any other in history. It is irrational to feel denial. You are here.\n\nOn the second road we can see this moment as the beginning of something new. With new tools comes greater opportunity than ever. Greater economic opportunity for those who value that. Greater technical opportunity for those who value that. The most powerful set of new tools since the dawn of computing itself. With these tools come risk, and with risk comes opportunity. With these tools come new industries, new fields of research, and new careers. All bring opportunity.\n\nThe First Road\n\nBack at university, I knew this guy. Mostly retired. An absolute wizz at circuit design and analog electronics. Like nobody I\u2019ve encountered since. In the late 1960s, him and some buddies started a hardware company. They\u2019d seen digital electronics coming, the 74 series had just launched. They didn\u2019t like it. No class. No beauty. Unreliable and full of problems. So they started this company betting that serious customers wouldn\u2019t accept the downsides of digital logic, and analog was the way of the future for real automation. Statistically, measured by the ratio of transistors in digital and analog circuits in the year 2026, it\u2019s unlikely anybody has ever been more wrong. Wrong by ten or more orders of magnitude.\n\nHe made a small fortune along this path. Not a large one, but enough to keep his children comfortable. The first road will surely have similar winners. The stubborn who stick to the old ways, and hustle to squeeze out the remaining economic value. That value will remain, because the world always changes slower than we would like.\n\nBut those that succeed along this road will increasingly be those that acknowledge what they\u2019re doing, and why they\u2019re doing it. Picking up the parts of an old world, now gone, but intentionally.\n\nThere will still be joy in programming. Just as there\u2019s joy in joinery, knitting, and hiking. You\u2019re not wrong to love programming. I love it too. You\u2019re not wrong to feel a deep sense of loss. I feel it too.\n\nThe Second Road\n\nWhat careers lie on the second road? Perhaps surprisingly, this seems harder to predict. My guess is that there are fortunes to be made exploiting the new technology, building faster, and out-competing a valuable incumbent. There are decades of great companies to build following that recipe. There are great careers in technology and science to be made applying this new technology to old problems, bringing new tools into tricky places, and solving the previously unsolvable. There are both fortunes and careers to be made in solving the problems this new technology introduces, allowing everybody else to exploit it to its maximum potential.\n\nIn other words, my best prediction is that the next two decades look like the last four. Hardly a prediction worthy of an oracle.\n\nToday, it seems like the biggest opportunities will be in the third of my opening statements. Building systems remains hard. Can I assume you\u2019re familiar with Amdahl\u2019s Law? That\u2019s what\u2019s going on: a massive speed up on a portion of the problem, but as that portion speeds up it becomes less and less of a contributor to the overall speedup. Lowering the costs of the rest of the problem is work that remains to be done. It\u2019s going to take a long time, because the real world is fully of sticky problems, surprising feedback loops, human stubbornness, and the occasional adversary.\n\nThere\u2019s also going to be great value in ideas. Integration and translation are solved problems. Simple analysis, and small scale synthesis are too. But new ideas, real transformative new ideas, remain hard to come by. And, as the lever gets longer, more and more valuable.\n\nSoftware\u2019s first act is over. 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