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[o]) Log in Contents move to sidebar hide (Top) 1 History 2 Mathematical formulation 3 See also 4 References (Table of Contents) Toggle the table of contents Lindy effect 13 languages (https://af.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy-effek) (Lindy-effek \u2013 Afrikaans) Afrikaans (https://ar.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%AA%D8%A3%D8%AB%D9%8A%D8%B1_%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%8A) (\u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0644\u064a\u0646\u062f\u064a \u2013 Arabic) \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a\u0629 (https://ca.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efecte_Lindy) (Efecte Lindy \u2013 Catalan) Catal\u00e0 (https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efecto_Lindy) (Efecto Lindy \u2013 Spanish) Espa\u00f1ol (https://fa.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D8%A7%D8%AB%D8%B1_%D9%84%DB%8C%D9%86%D8%AF%DB%8C) (\u0627\u062b\u0631 \u0644\u06cc\u0646\u062f\u06cc \u2013 Persian) \u0641\u0627\u0631\u0633\u06cc (https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effet_Lindy) (Effet Lindy \u2013 French) Fran\u00e7ais (https://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/%EB%A6%B0%EB%94%94_%ED%9A%A8%EA%B3%BC) (\ub9b0\ub514 \ud6a8\uacfc \u2013 Korean) \ud55c\uad6d\uc5b4 (https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effetto_Lindy) (Effetto Lindy \u2013 Italian) Italiano (https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%83%87%E3%82%A3%E5%8A%B9%E6%9E%9C) (\u30ea\u30f3\u30c7\u30a3\u52b9\u679c \u2013 Japanese) \u65e5\u672c\u8a9e (https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efeito_Lindy) (Efeito Lindy \u2013 Portuguese) Portugu\u00eas (https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%AD%D1%84%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%82_%D0%9B%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%B4%D0%B8) (\u042d\u0444\u0444\u0435\u043a\u0442 \u041b\u0438\u043d\u0434\u0438 \u2013 Russian) \u0420\u0443\u0441\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439 (https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%95%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%82_%D0%9B%D1%96%D0%BD%D0%B4%D1%96) (\u0415\u0444\u0435\u043a\u0442 \u041b\u0456\u043d\u0434\u0456 \u2013 Ukrainian) \u0423\u043a\u0440\u0430\u0457\u043d\u0441\u044c\u043a\u0430 (https://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%9E%97%E8%BF%AA%E6%95%88%E5%BA%94) (\u6797\u8fea\u6548\u5e94 \u2013 Chinese) \u4e2d\u6587 (https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Special:EntityPage/Q17152837#sitelinks-wikipedia) (Edit interlanguage links) Edit links (/wiki/Lindy_effect) (View the content page [c]) Article (/wiki/Talk:Lindy_effect) (Discuss improvements to the content page [t]) Talk English (/wiki/Lindy_effect) Read (/w/index.php?title=Lindy_effect&action=edit) (Edit this page [e]) Edit (/w/index.php?title=Lindy_effect&action=history) (Past revisions of this page [h]) View history Tools Tools move to sidebar hide (More options) Actions (/wiki/Lindy_effect) Read (/w/index.php?title=Lindy_effect&action=edit) (Edit this page [e]) Edit (/w/index.php?title=Lindy_effect&action=history) View history General (/wiki/Special:WhatLinksHere/Lindy_effect) (List of all English Wikipedia pages containing links to this page [j]) What links here (/wiki/Special:RecentChangesLinked/Lindy_effect) (Recent changes in pages linked from this page [k]) Related changes (//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:File_Upload_Wizard) (Upload files [u]) Upload file (/w/index.php?title=Lindy_effect&oldid=1325949443) (Permanent link to this revision of this page) Permanent link (/w/index.php?title=Lindy_effect&action=info) (More information about this page) Page information (/w/index.php?title=Special:CiteThisPage&page=Lindy_effect&id=1325949443&wpFormIdentifier=titleform) (Information on how to cite this page) Cite this page (/w/index.php?title=Special:UrlShortener&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FLindy_effect) Get shortened URL (/w/index.php?title=Special:QrCode&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FLindy_effect) Download QR code Print/export (/w/index.php?title=Special:DownloadAsPdf&page=Lindy_effect&action=show-download-screen) (Download this page as a PDF file) Download as PDF (/w/index.php?title=Lindy_effect&printable=yes) (Printable version of this page [p]) Printable version In other projects (https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Special:EntityPage/Q17152837) (Structured data on this page hosted by Wikidata [g]) Wikidata item Appearance move to sidebar hide From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Theorized increase of longevity with age The Lindy effect (also known as Lindy's law [ 1] ) is a theorized phenomenon by which the future (/wiki/Mediocrity_principle#Longevity_estimation) (Mediocrity principle) life expectancy of some non-perishable thing, like a technology or an idea, is proportional to its current age. Thus, the Lindy effect proposes the longer a period something has survived to exist or be used in the present, the longer its remaining life expectancy. Longevity implies a resistance to change, obsolescence, or competition, and greater odds of continued existence into the future.[ 2] Where the Lindy effect applies, (/wiki/Mortality_rate) (Mortality rate) mortality rate decreases with time. Mathematically, the Lindy effect corresponds to lifetimes following a (/wiki/Pareto_distribution) (Pareto distribution) Pareto probability distribution . The concept is named after (/wiki/Lindy%27s) (Lindy's) Lindy's delicatessen in New York City, where the concept was informally theorized by comedians: a show running only 2 weeks would be expected to last another 2 weeks, while a show that has lasted 2 years could expect a further 2-year run.[ 3] [ 4] The Lindy effect has subsequently been theorized by mathematicians and statisticians.[ 5] [ 6] [ 1] (/wiki/Nassim_Nicholas_Taleb) (Nassim Nicholas Taleb) Nassim Nicholas Taleb has expressed the Lindy effect in terms of \"distance from an (/wiki/Absorbing_barrier_(finance)) (Absorbing barrier (finance)) absorbing barrier \".[ 7] The Lindy effect applies to non-perishable items, like books, those that do not have an \"unavoidable expiration date\".[ 2] For example, human beings are perishable: the (/wiki/Life_expectancy_at_birth) (Life expectancy at birth) life expectancy at birth in developed countries is about 80 years. So the Lindy effect does not apply to individual human lifespan: all else being equal, it is less likely for a 10-year-old human to die within the next year than for a 100-year-old, while the Lindy effect would predict the opposite. History [ (/w/index.php?title=Lindy_effect&action=edit§ion=1) (Edit section: History) edit ] (/wiki/File:Lindys_Restaurant_Broadway_and_51st_Street_New_York_City.JPG) Lindy's delicatessen at Broadway and 51st St in New York City The origin of the term can be traced to (/wiki/Albert_Goldman) (Albert Goldman) Albert Goldman and a 1964 article he had written in (/wiki/The_New_Republic) (The New Republic) The New Republic titled \"Lindy's Law.\"[ 3] [ 4] The term Lindy refers to (/wiki/Lindy%27s) (Lindy's) Lindy's delicatessen in New York, where comedians \"foregather every night [to] conduct post-mortems on recent show business 'action.'\" In this article, Goldman describes a folkloric belief among New York City media observers that the amount of material (/wiki/Comedian) (Comedian) comedians have is constant, and therefore, the frequency of output predicts how long their series will last:[ 8] ...\u00a0the life expectancy of a television comedian is [inversely] proportional to the total amount of his exposure on the medium. If, pathetically deluded by hubris, he undertakes a regular weekly or even monthly program, his chances of survival beyond the first season are slight; but if he adopts the conservation of resources policy favored by these senescent philosophers of \"the Business,\" and confines himself to \"specials\" and \"guest shots,\" he may last to the age of (/wiki/Ed_Wynn) (Ed Wynn) Ed Wynn [d. age 79 in 1966 while still acting in movies] (/wiki/Benoit_Mandelbrot) (Benoit Mandelbrot) Benoit Mandelbrot defined a different concept with the same name in his 1982 book (/wiki/The_Fractal_Geometry_of_Nature) (The Fractal Geometry of Nature) The Fractal Geometry of Nature . [ 5] In Mandelbrot's version, comedians do not have a fixed amount of comedic material to spread over TV appearances, but rather, the more appearances they make, the more future appearances they are predicted to make: Mandelbrot expressed mathematically that for certain things bounded by the life of the producer, like human promise, future life expectancy is proportional to the past. He references Lindy's Law and a parable of the young poets' cemetery and then applies to researchers and their publications: \"However long a person's past collected works, it will on the average continue for an equal additional amount. When it eventually stops, it breaks off at precisely half of its promise.\"[ 5] In (/wiki/Nassim_Nicholas_Taleb) (Nassim Nicholas Taleb) Nassim Nicholas Taleb 's 2012 book (/wiki/Antifragile_(book)) (Antifragile (book)) Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder he for the first time explicitly referred to his idea as the Lindy Effect, removed the bounds of the life of the producer to include anything which doesn't have a natural upper bound, and incorporated it into his broader theory of the Antifragile. (mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1244412712) If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another fifty years. This, simply, as a rule, tells you why things that have been around for a long time are not \"aging\" like persons, but \"aging\" in reverse. Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy. This is an indicator of some robustness. The robustness of an item is proportional to its life![ 9] According to Taleb, (/wiki/Benoit_Mandelbrot) (Benoit Mandelbrot) Mandelbrot agreed with the expanded definition of the Lindy Effect: \"I [Taleb] suggested the boundary perishable/nonperishable and he [Mandelbrot] agreed that the nonperishable would be power-law distributed while the perishable (the initial Lindy story) worked as a mere metaphor.\"[ 10] Taleb further defined the term in (/wiki/Skin_in_the_Game_(book)) (Skin in the Game (book)) Skin in the Game , where he linked Lindy with fragility, disorder and time.[ 11] To Taleb, \"the theory of fragility directly leads to the Lindy effect,\" as he defines \"fragility as sensitivity to disorder,\" and states that \"time is equivalent to disorder, and resistance to the ravages of time, that is, what we gloriously call survival, is the ability to handle disorder.\"[ 11] As time operates through \"skin in the game,\" Taleb believes that \"[t]hings that have survived are hinting to us \u2018ex post\u2019 that they have some robustness.\" He concludes therefore that \"the only effective judge of things is time,\" which in his view answers the \"age-old meta-questions: Who will judge the expert? Who will guard the guard? [...] Well, survival will.\"[ 11] He further states that the Lindy effect in itself is \"Lindy-proof,\" citing the words of (/wiki/Pre-Socratic) (Pre-Socratic) pre-Socratic philosopher (/wiki/Periander) (Periander) Periander (\"Use laws that are old but food that is fresh\") and (/wiki/Alfonso_X_of_Castile) (Alfonso X of Castile) Alfonso X of Castile (\"Burn old logs. Drink old wine. Read old books. Keep old friends.\")[ 11] Contemporary proponents of the Lindy effect include Twitter user Paul Skallas, known as LindyMan, and (/wiki/Marc_Andreessen) (Marc Andreessen) Marc Andreessen , co-founder of (/wiki/Andreessen_Horowitz) (Andreessen Horowitz) Andreessen Horowitz . Skallas promotes a lifestyle inspired by the Lindy effect, an eclectic mix of Mediterranean writers such as Greek philosopher (/wiki/Plutarch) (Plutarch) Plutarch and Catholic theologian (/wiki/Thomas_Aquinas) (Thomas Aquinas) Thomas Aquinas , and the presumed lifestyles of Mediterranean peoples. Writing for (/wiki/The_New_York_Times) (The New York Times) The New York Times , Ezra Marcus notes that Skallas' approach to the Lindy effect breaks with Taleb's statistical analysis by focusing on lifestyle topics such as diet, dating, and exercise. Skallas advocates skepticism toward new products and new ideas that have not yet proven their durability. Skallas recognizes that cultural longevity does not imply a moral value, noting, for instance, that sexual abuse by a rich man such as (/wiki/Jeffrey_Epstein) (Jeffrey Epstein) Jeffrey Epstein is also \"Lindy\".[ 12] Mathematical formulation [ (/w/index.php?title=Lindy_effect&action=edit§ion=2) (Edit section: Mathematical formulation) edit ] See also: (/wiki/Survival_analysis) (Survival analysis) Survival analysis Mathematically, the relation postulated by the Lindy effect can be expressed as the following statement about a (/wiki/Random_variable) (Random variable) random variable T corresponding to the lifetime of the object (e.g. a comedy show), which is assumed to take values in the range c \u2264 T < \u221e {\\displaystyle c\\leq T<\\infty } ({\\displaystyle c\\leq T<\\infty }) (with a lower bound c \u2265 0 {\\displaystyle c\\geq 0} ({\\displaystyle c\\geq 0}) ):[ 1] E [ T \u2212 t \u2223 T > t ] = p \u22c5 t . {\\displaystyle \\mathrm {E} [T-t\\mid T>t]=p\\cdot t.} ({\\displaystyle \\mathrm {E} [T-t\\mid T>t]=p\\cdot t.}) Here the left hand side denotes the (/wiki/Conditional_expectation) (Conditional expectation) conditional expectation of the remaining lifetime T \u2212 t {\\displaystyle T-t} ({\\displaystyle T-t}) , given that T {\\displaystyle T} ({\\displaystyle T}) has exceeded t {\\displaystyle t} ({\\displaystyle t}) , and the parameter p {\\displaystyle p} ({\\displaystyle p}) on the right hand side (called \"Lindy proportion\" by Iddo Eliazar) is a positive constant.[ 1] This is equivalent to the (/wiki/Survival_function) (Survival function) survival function of T being \u03a6 ( t ) := Pr ( T > t ) = ( c t ) \u03f5 , where \u03f5 = 1 + 1 p , {\\displaystyle \\Phi (t):={\\text{Pr}}(T>t)=\\left({\\frac {c}{t}}\\right)^{\\epsilon },{\\text{ where }}\\epsilon =1+{\\frac {1}{p}},} ({\\displaystyle \\Phi (t):={\\text{Pr}}(T>t)=\\left({\\frac {c}{t}}\\right)^{\\epsilon },{\\text{ where }}\\epsilon =1+{\\frac {1}{p}},}) which has the (/wiki/Hazard_function) (Hazard function) hazard function \u2212 \u03a6 \u2032 ( t ) \u03a6 ( t ) = \u03f5 t = 1 + p p 1 t . {\\displaystyle -{\\frac {\\Phi '(t)}{\\Phi (t)}}={\\frac {\\epsilon }{t}}={\\frac {1+p}{p}}{\\frac {1}{t}}.} ({\\displaystyle -{\\frac {\\Phi '(t)}{\\Phi (t)}}={\\frac {\\epsilon }{t}}={\\frac {1+p}{p}}{\\frac {1}{t}}.}) This means that the lifetime T {\\displaystyle T} ({\\displaystyle T}) follows a (/wiki/Pareto_distribution) (Pareto distribution) Pareto distribution (a power-law distribution) with exponent \u03f5 {\\displaystyle \\epsilon } ({\\displaystyle \\epsilon }) .[ 13] [(/wiki/Wikipedia:Verifiability#Self-published_sources) (Wikipedia:Verifiability) (The material near this tag may rely on a self-published source. (March 2021)) self-published source? ] [ 14] [(/wiki/Wikipedia:Verifiability#Self-published_sources) (Wikipedia:Verifiability) (The material near this tag may rely on a self-published source. (March 2021)) self-published source? ] [ 1] Conversely, however, only Pareto distributions with exponent 1 < \u03f5 < \u221e {\\displaystyle 1<\\epsilon <\\infty } ({\\displaystyle 1<\\epsilon <\\infty }) correspond to a lifetime distribution that satisfies Lindy's Law, since the Lindy proportion p {\\displaystyle p} ({\\displaystyle p}) is required to be positive and finite (in particular, the lifetime T {\\displaystyle T} ({\\displaystyle T}) is assumed to have a finite expectation value).[ 1] Iddo Eliazar has proposed an alternative formulation of Lindy's Law involving the median instead of the mean (expected value) of the remaining lifetime T \u2212 t {\\displaystyle T-t} ({\\displaystyle T-t}) , which corresponds to Pareto distributions for the lifetime T {\\displaystyle T} ({\\displaystyle T}) with the full range of possible Pareto exponents 0 < \u03f5 < \u221e {\\displaystyle 0<\\epsilon <\\infty } ({\\displaystyle 0<\\epsilon <\\infty }) .[ 1] Eliazar also demonstrated a relation to (/wiki/Zipf%27s_law) (Zipf's law) Zipf\u2019s Law , and to socioeconomic inequality, arguing that \"Lindy\u2019s Law, Pareto\u2019s Law and Zipf\u2019s Law are in effect synonymous laws.\"[ 1] See also [ (/w/index.php?title=Lindy_effect&action=edit§ion=3) (Edit section: See also) edit ] (/wiki/Doomsday_argument) (Doomsday argument) Doomsday argument (/wiki/Memorylessness) (Memorylessness) Memorylessness (/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) (Longevity escape velocity) Longevity escape velocity (/wiki/Planning_fallacy) (Planning fallacy) Planning fallacy (/wiki/Preferential_attachment) (Preferential attachment) Preferential attachment (/wiki/Survivorship_curve) (Survivorship curve) Survivorship curve (/wiki/Survivorship_bias) (Survivorship bias) Survivorship bias (/wiki/Weibull_distribution) (Weibull distribution) Weibull distribution (/wiki/Copernican_principle) (Copernican principle) Copernican principle References [ (/w/index.php?title=Lindy_effect&action=edit§ion=4) (Edit section: References) edit ] ^ a b c d e f g h Eliazar, Iddo (November 2017). \"Lindy's Law\". Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications . 486 : 797\u2013 805. (/wiki/Bibcode_(identifier)) (Bibcode (identifier)) Bibcode :(https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhyA..486..797E) 2017PhyA..486..797E . (/wiki/Doi_(identifier)) (Doi (identifier)) doi :(https://doi.org/10.1016%2Fj.physa.2017.05.077) 10.1016/j.physa.2017.05.077 . (/wiki/S2CID_(identifier)) (S2CID (identifier)) S2CID (https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:125349686) 125349686 . (ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=Physica+A%3A+Statistical+Mechanics+and+Its+Applications&rft.atitle=Lindy%27s+Law&rft.volume=486&rft.pages=797-805&rft.date=2017-11&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.semanticscholar.org%2FCorpusID%3A125349686%23id-name%3DS2CID&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1016%2Fj.physa.2017.05.077&rft_id=info%3Abibcode%2F2017PhyA..486..797E&rft.aulast=Eliazar&rft.aufirst=Iddo&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ALindy+effect) ^ a b (mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222) Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2012). (Free registration required) (https://archive.org/details/isbn_9781400067824) Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder . Random House. p. (https://archive.org/details/isbn_9781400067824/page/514) 514 . (/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)) (ISBN (identifier)) ISBN (/wiki/Special:BookSources/9781400067824) (Special:BookSources/9781400067824) 9781400067824 . (ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Antifragile%3A+Things+That+Gain+from+Disorder&rft.pages=514&rft.pub=Random+House&rft.date=2012&rft.isbn=9781400067824&rft.au=Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Farchive.org%2Fdetails%2Fisbn_9781400067824&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ALindy+effect) ^ a b (mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222) Marcus, Ezra (June 17, 2021). (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/17/style/lindy.html) \"The Lindy Way of Living\" . New York Times . New York City. Retrieved April 6, 2023 . A technology lawyer named Paul Skallas argues we should be gleaning more wisdom from antiquity. (ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=New+York+Times&rft.atitle=The+Lindy+Way+of+Living&rft.date=2021-06-17&rft.aulast=Marcus&rft.aufirst=Ezra&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2021%2F06%2F17%2Fstyle%2Flindy.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ALindy+effect) ^ a b (mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222) (/wiki/Albert_Goldman) (Albert Goldman) Goldman, Albert (June 13, 1964). (https://web.archive.org/web/20210619015733/https://www.gwern.net/docs/statistics/1964-goldman.pdf) \"Lindy's Law\" (PDF) . (/wiki/The_New_Republic) (The New Republic) The New Republic . pp. 34\u2013 35. Archived from (https://gwern.net/doc/statistics/probability/1964-goldman.pdf) the original (PDF) on June 19, 2021. Retrieved April 6, 2023 . (ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=article&rft.jtitle=The+New+Republic&rft.atitle=Lindy%27s+Law&rft.pages=34-35&rft.date=1964-06-13&rft.aulast=Goldman&rft.aufirst=Albert&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fgwern.net%2Fdoc%2Fstatistics%2Fprobability%2F1964-goldman.pdf&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ALindy+effect) ^ a b c (mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222) (/wiki/Benoit_Mandelbrot) (Benoit Mandelbrot) Mandelbrot, Benoit B. (1982). (https://archive.org/details/fractalgeometryo00beno/page/342/mode/2up) The Fractal Geometry of Nature . (/wiki/W._H._Freeman_and_Company) (W. H. Freeman and Company) W. H. Freeman and Company . p.\u00a0342. (/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)) (ISBN (identifier)) ISBN (/wiki/Special:BookSources/978-0-7167-1186-5) (Special:BookSources/978-0-7167-1186-5) 978-0-7167-1186-5 . (ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=The+Fractal+Geometry+of+Nature&rft.pages=342&rft.pub=W.+H.+Freeman+and+Company&rft.date=1982&rft.isbn=978-0-7167-1186-5&rft.aulast=Mandelbrot&rft.aufirst=Benoit+B.&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Farchive.org%2Fdetails%2Ffractalgeometryo00beno%2Fpage%2F342%2Fmode%2F2up&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ALindy+effect) ^ (mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222) Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2007). (Free registration required) (https://archive.org/details/blackswanimpacto00tale) The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable . Random House. p. (https://archive.org/details/blackswanimpacto00tale/page/159) 159 . (/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)) (ISBN (identifier)) ISBN (/wiki/Special:BookSources/9781588365835) (Special:BookSources/9781588365835) 9781588365835 . Like many biological variables, life expectancy. (ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=The+Black+Swan%3A+The+Impact+of+the+Highly+Improbable&rft.pages=159&rft.pub=Random+House&rft.date=2007&rft.isbn=9781588365835&rft.au=Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Farchive.org%2Fdetails%2Fblackswanimpacto00tale&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ALindy+effect) ^ (mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222) Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. (https://www.academia.edu/44944654) \"Lindy as a Distance from an Absorbing Barrier (Chapter from SILENT RISK)\" . (ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=unknown&rft.btitle=Lindy+as+a+Distance+from+an+Absorbing+Barrier+%28Chapter+from+SILENT+RISK%29&rft.aulast=Taleb&rft.aufirst=Nassim+Nicholas&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.academia.edu%2F44944654&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ALindy+effect) ^ (mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222) Chatfield, Tom (24 June 2019). (https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190624-how-to-think-about-the-far-future) \"The simple rule that can help you predict the future\" . BBC . Retrieved 21 May 2020 . (ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=BBC&rft.atitle=The+simple+rule+that+can+help+you+predict+the+future&rft.date=2019-06-24&rft.aulast=Chatfield&rft.aufirst=Tom&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Ffuture%2Farticle%2F20190624-how-to-think-about-the-far-future&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ALindy+effect) ^ (mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222) Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2012). (Free registration required) (https://archive.org/details/isbn_9781400067824) Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder . Random House. p. (https://archive.org/details/isbn_9781400067824/page/318) 318 . (/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)) (ISBN (identifier)) ISBN (/wiki/Special:BookSources/9780679645276) (Special:BookSources/9780679645276) 9780679645276 . another forty years. (ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Antifragile%3A+Things+That+Gain+from+Disorder&rft.pages=318&rft.pub=Random+House&rft.date=2012&rft.isbn=9780679645276&rft.au=Nassim+Nicholas+Taleb&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Farchive.org%2Fdetails%2Fisbn_9781400067824&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ALindy+effect) ^ (mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222) Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2012-11-27). (https://books.google.com/books?id=5fqbz_qGi0AC&q=suggested%20the%20boundary%20perishable%2Fnonperishable%20antifragility&pg=PT572) Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder . Random House Publishing. (/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)) (ISBN (identifier)) ISBN (/wiki/Special:BookSources/9780679645276) (Special:BookSources/9780679645276) 9780679645276 . (ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Antifragile%3A+Things+That+Gain+from+Disorder&rft.pub=Random+House+Publishing&rft.date=2012-11-27&rft.isbn=9780679645276&rft.aulast=Taleb&rft.aufirst=Nassim+Nicholas&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fbooks.google.com%2Fbooks%3Fid%3D5fqbz_qGi0AC%26q%3Dsuggested%2520the%2520boundary%2520perishable%252Fnonperishable%2520antifragility%26pg%3DPT572&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ALindy+effect) ^ a b c d (mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222) Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2019). (/wiki/Skin_in_the_Game:_Hidden_Asymmetries_in_Daily_Life) (Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life) Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life . Great Britain: Penguin. pp. 141\u2013 152. (/wiki/ISBN_(identifier)) (ISBN (identifier)) ISBN (/wiki/Special:BookSources/9780141982656) (Special:BookSources/9780141982656) 9780141982656 . (ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle=Skin+in+the+Game%3A+Hidden+Asymmetries+in+Daily+Life&rft.place=Great+Britain&rft.pages=141-152&rft.pub=Penguin&rft.date=2019&rft.isbn=9780141982656&rft.aulast=Taleb&rft.aufirst=Nassim+Nicholas&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ALindy+effect) ^ (mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222) Marcus, Ezra (2021-06-17). (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/17/style/lindy.html) \"The Lindy Way of Living\" . (/wiki/The_New_York_Times) (The New York Times) The New York Times . Retrieved 2023-04-06 . (ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=The+New+York+Times&rft.atitle=The+Lindy+Way+of+Living&rft.date=2021-06-17&rft.aulast=Marcus&rft.aufirst=Ezra&rft_id=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2021%2F06%2F17%2Fstyle%2Flindy.html&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ALindy+effect) ^ (mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222) Cook, John (December 17, 2012). (http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2012/12/17/the-lindy-effect/) \"The Lindy effect\" . John D. Cook . Retrieved May 29, 2017 . (ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=John+D.+Cook&rft.atitle=The+Lindy+effect&rft.date=2012-12-17&rft.aulast=Cook&rft.aufirst=John&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.johndcook.com%2Fblog%2F2012%2F12%2F17%2Fthe-lindy-effect%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ALindy+effect) ^ (mw-data:TemplateStyles:r1238218222) Cook, John (December 19, 2012). (http://www.johndcook.com/blog/2012/12/19/more-on-the-lindy-effect/) \"Beethoven, Beatles, and Beyonc\u00e9: more on the Lindy effect\" . John D. Cook . Retrieved May 29, 2017 . (ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Ajournal&rft.genre=unknown&rft.jtitle=John+D.+Cook&rft.atitle=Beethoven%2C+Beatles%2C+and+Beyonc%C3%A9%3A+more+on+the+Lindy+effect&rft.date=2012-12-19&rft.aulast=Cook&rft.aufirst=John&rft_id=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.johndcook.com%2Fblog%2F2012%2F12%2F19%2Fmore-on-the-lindy-effect%2F&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fen.wikipedia.org%3ALindy+effect) () Retrieved from \"(https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Lindy_effect&oldid=1325949443) https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Lindy_effect&oldid=1325949443 \" (/wiki/Help:Category) (Help:Category) Categories : (/wiki/Category:Economics_effects) (Category:Economics effects) Economics effects (/wiki/Category:Ageing) (Category:Ageing) Ageing (/wiki/Category:Survival_analysis) (Category:Survival analysis) Survival analysis Hidden categories: (/wiki/Category:Articles_with_short_description) (Category:Articles with short description) Articles with short description (/wiki/Category:Short_description_is_different_from_Wikidata) (Category:Short description is different from Wikidata) Short description is different from Wikidata (/wiki/Category:All_articles_with_self-published_sources) (Category:All articles with self-published sources) All articles with self-published sources (/wiki/Category:Articles_with_self-published_sources_from_March_2021) (Category:Articles with self-published sources from March 2021) Articles with self-published sources from March 2021 This page was last edited on 6 December 2025, at 03:54(UTC) . 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Thus, the Lindy effect proposes the longer a period something has survived to exist or be used in the present, the longer its remaining life expectancy. Longevity implies a resistance to change, obsolescence, or competition, and greater odds of continued existence into the future.[2] Where the Lindy effect applies, mortality rate decreases with time. Mathematically, the Lindy effect corresponds to lifetimes following a Pareto probability distribution.\nThe concept is named after Lindy's delicatessen in New York City, where the concept was informally theorized by comedians: a show running only 2 weeks would be expected to last another 2 weeks, while a show that has lasted 2 years could expect a further 2-year run.[3][4] The Lindy effect has subsequently been theorized by mathematicians and statisticians.[5][6][1] Nassim Nicholas Taleb has expressed the Lindy effect in terms of \"distance from an absorbing barrier\".[7]\nThe Lindy effect applies to non-perishable items, like books, those that do not have an \"unavoidable expiration date\".[2] For example, human beings are perishable: the life expectancy at birth in developed countries is about 80 years. So the Lindy effect does not apply to individual human lifespan: all else being equal, it is less likely for a 10-year-old human to die within the next year than for a 100-year-old, while the Lindy effect would predict the opposite.\n\n\n\nLindy's delicatessen at Broadway and 51st St in New York City\nThe origin of the term can be traced to Albert Goldman and a 1964 article he had written in The New Republic titled \"Lindy's Law.\"[3][4] The term Lindy refers to Lindy's delicatessen in New York, where comedians \"foregather every night [to] conduct post-mortems on recent show business 'action.'\" In this article, Goldman describes a folkloric belief among New York City media observers that the amount of material comedians have is constant, and therefore, the frequency of output predicts how long their series will last:[8]\n\n...\u00a0the life expectancy of a television comedian is [inversely] proportional to the total amount of his exposure on the medium. If, pathetically deluded by hubris, he undertakes a regular weekly or even monthly program, his chances of survival beyond the first season are slight; but if he adopts the conservation of resources policy favored by these senescent philosophers of \"the Business,\" and confines himself to \"specials\" and \"guest shots,\" he may last to the age of Ed Wynn [d. age 79 in 1966 while still acting in movies]\nBenoit Mandelbrot defined a different concept with the same name in his 1982 book The Fractal Geometry of Nature.[5] In Mandelbrot's version, comedians do not have a fixed amount of comedic material to spread over TV appearances, but rather, the more appearances they make, the more future appearances they are predicted to make: Mandelbrot expressed mathematically that for certain things bounded by the life of the producer, like human promise, future life expectancy is proportional to the past. He references Lindy's Law and a parable of the young poets' cemetery and then applies to researchers and their publications: \"However long a person's past collected works, it will on the average continue for an equal additional amount. When it eventually stops, it breaks off at precisely half of its promise.\"[5]\nIn Nassim Nicholas Taleb's 2012 book Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder he for the first time explicitly referred to his idea as the Lindy Effect, removed the bounds of the life of the producer to include anything which doesn't have a natural upper bound, and incorporated it into his broader theory of the Antifragile.\n\n If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another fifty years. This, simply, as a rule, tells you why things that have been around for a long time are not \"aging\" like persons, but \"aging\" in reverse. Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy. This is an indicator of some robustness. The robustness of an item is proportional to its life![9] According to Taleb, Mandelbrot agreed with the expanded definition of the Lindy Effect: \"I [Taleb] suggested the boundary perishable/nonperishable and he [Mandelbrot] agreed that the nonperishable would be power-law distributed while the perishable (the initial Lindy story) worked as a mere metaphor.\"[10]\nTaleb further defined the term in Skin in the Game, where he linked Lindy with fragility, disorder and time.[11] To Taleb, \"the theory of fragility directly leads to the Lindy effect,\" as he defines \"fragility as sensitivity to disorder,\" and states that \"time is equivalent to disorder, and resistance to the ravages of time, that is, what we gloriously call survival, is the ability to handle disorder.\"[11] As time operates through \"skin in the game,\" Taleb believes that \"[t]hings that have survived are hinting to us \u2018ex post\u2019 that they have some robustness.\" He concludes therefore that \"the only effective judge of things is time,\" which in his view answers the \"age-old meta-questions: Who will judge the expert? Who will guard the guard? [...] Well, survival will.\"[11] He further states that the Lindy effect in itself is \"Lindy-proof,\" citing the words of pre-Socratic philosopher Periander (\"Use laws that are old but food that is fresh\") and Alfonso X of Castile (\"Burn old logs. Drink old wine. Read old books. Keep old friends.\")[11]\nContemporary proponents of the Lindy effect include Twitter user Paul Skallas, known as LindyMan, and Marc Andreessen, co-founder of Andreessen Horowitz. Skallas promotes a lifestyle inspired by the Lindy effect, an eclectic mix of Mediterranean writers such as Greek philosopher Plutarch and Catholic theologian Thomas Aquinas, and the presumed lifestyles of Mediterranean peoples. Writing for The New York Times, Ezra Marcus notes that Skallas' approach to the Lindy effect breaks with Taleb's statistical analysis by focusing on lifestyle topics such as diet, dating, and exercise. Skallas advocates skepticism toward new products and new ideas that have not yet proven their durability. Skallas recognizes that cultural longevity does not imply a moral value, noting, for instance, that sexual abuse by a rich man such as Jeffrey Epstein is also \"Lindy\".[12]\n\nMathematical formulation[edit]\n\nMathematically, the relation postulated by the Lindy effect can be expressed as the following statement about a random variable T corresponding to the lifetime of the object (e.g. a comedy show), which is assumed to take values in the range (with a lower bound ):[1]\n\nHere the left hand side denotes the conditional expectation of the remaining lifetime , given that has exceeded , and the parameter on the right hand side (called \"Lindy proportion\" by Iddo Eliazar) is a positive constant.[1]\nThis is equivalent to the survival function of T being\n\nwhich has the hazard function\n\nThis means that the lifetime follows a Pareto distribution (a power-law distribution) with exponent .[13][self-published source?][14][self-published source?][1]\nConversely, however, only Pareto distributions with exponent correspond to a lifetime distribution that satisfies Lindy's Law, since the Lindy proportion is required to be positive and finite (in particular, the lifetime is assumed to have a finite expectation value).[1] Iddo Eliazar has proposed an alternative formulation of Lindy's Law involving the median instead of the mean (expected value) of the remaining lifetime , which corresponds to Pareto distributions for the lifetime with the full range of possible Pareto exponents .[1] Eliazar also demonstrated a relation to Zipf\u2019s Law, and to socioeconomic inequality, arguing that \"Lindy\u2019s Law, Pareto\u2019s Law and Zipf\u2019s Law are in effect synonymous laws.\"[1]\n\n\nDoomsday argument\nMemorylessness\nLongevity escape velocity\nPlanning fallacy\nPreferential attachment\nSurvivorship curve\nSurvivorship bias\nWeibull distribution\nCopernican principle\n\n\n^ a b c d e f g h Eliazar, Iddo (November 2017). \"Lindy's Law\". Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications. 486: 797\u2013805. Bibcode:2017PhyA..486..797E. doi:10.1016/j.physa.2017.05.077. S2CID\u00a0125349686.\n\n^ a b Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2012). Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder. Random House. p.\u00a0514. ISBN\u00a09781400067824.\n\n^ a b Marcus, Ezra (June 17, 2021). \"The Lindy Way of Living\". New York Times. New York City. Retrieved April 6, 2023. A technology lawyer named Paul Skallas argues we should be gleaning more wisdom from antiquity.\n\n^ a b Goldman, Albert (June 13, 1964). \"Lindy's Law\" (PDF). The New Republic. pp.\u00a034\u201335. Archived from the original (PDF) on June 19, 2021. Retrieved April 6, 2023.\n\n^ a b c Mandelbrot, Benoit B. (1982). The Fractal Geometry of Nature. W. H. Freeman and Company. p.\u00a0342. ISBN\u00a0978-0-7167-1186-5.\n\n^ Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Random House. p.\u00a0159. ISBN\u00a09781588365835. Like many biological variables, life expectancy.\n\n^ Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. \"Lindy as a Distance from an Absorbing Barrier (Chapter from SILENT RISK)\".\n\n^ Chatfield, Tom (24 June 2019). \"The simple rule that can help you predict the future\". BBC. Retrieved 21 May 2020.\n\n^ Nassim Nicholas Taleb (2012). Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder. Random House. p.\u00a0318. ISBN\u00a09780679645276. another forty years.\n\n^ Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2012-11-27). Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder. Random House Publishing. ISBN\u00a09780679645276.\n\n^ a b c d Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2019). Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life. Great Britain: Penguin. pp.\u00a0141\u2013152. ISBN\u00a09780141982656.\n\n^ Marcus, Ezra (2021-06-17). \"The Lindy Way of Living\". The New York Times. Retrieved 2023-04-06.\n\n^ Cook, John (December 17, 2012). \"The Lindy effect\". John D. Cook. Retrieved May 29, 2017.\n\n^ Cook, John (December 19, 2012). \"Beethoven, Beatles, and Beyonc\u00e9: more on the Lindy effect\". John D. Cook. 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